Updates
Update, 14 December 2021
Published: 14 December 2021
An update on the Omicron variant from Professor David Rosser, Chief Executive
Following the Prime Minister’s announcement on Sunday, and the latest Omicron variant modelling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine which is used to help inform national decision-making, I wanted to share with you the size of the challenge we are facing and what actions we will be taking or considering over the coming days and weeks.
Predicted to peak mid-to-late January 2022, the currently unmodified modelling, which would be altered by for example more stringent restrictions, suggests a best case scenario of peak hospital admissions reaching approximately 60% of those in January 2021 – the most challenging period UHB have faced to date.
While this is exceptionally difficult for all of us to accept, given your collective, heroic efforts, and the efforts of our colleagues working within the vaccination campaign; the worst case scenario (based upon the current available evidence) estimates that we could see far higher numbers than these.
Formal guidance from NHS England and Improvement confirming priorities for health and social care providers alongside vaccination was received last night, and we are currently working through the detail.
At the same time, we are accelerating the booster programme to provide all eligible citizens over 18 years old, the opportunity of a booster vaccination before the end of the year.
The booster is our best chance in preventing the worst case scenario, and I must encourage all of you, who have not had a booster, or your first or second doses, to do so as soon as possible. You can have this at the QEHB hospital hub, or please book or walk-in to a community site.
We are, once again, going to have to make some bold and extraordinarily difficult decisions to provide the most good, for the largest number of people.
Our immediate actions must be to support the reduction in risk, therefore I must reiterate that if you can work from home, and, following a conversation with your manager, you can continue to support the operational need for your team at home, then please do so.
Please also continue to deliver the highest possible standards of infection prevention and control to help control the spread, this includes self-testing at least twice per week (more in some higher-risk areas), wearing the appropriate PPE and mask for the task being undertaken, and following the inpatient screening protocol.
We must also now step down all internal face-to-face meetings where possible, except where this is clinically necessary.
Sadly, and although you, more than anyone, deserve to enjoy yourselves this Christmas time, I strongly advise you to consider stepping down any planned large gatherings, such as your Christmas parties.
I have also increased our three times a week internal strategic response meetings to seven days, and increased frequency of meetings with Birmingham and Solihull health and social care leaders to ensure a well-coordinated regional response for patients to receive the best care possible, and ensure you are as well-supported as possible.
This week, we will also work to set back up the reservist redeployment hub, and further information about the national mandatory staff vaccination process will be issued. We also hope to simplify the lateral flow testing process and improve the availability of testing kits.
We will also issue guidance regarding annual leave, training and study leave in due course.
At 13:00 today (Tuesday 14 December 2021), I will chair the Recovery webinar to share the latest information.
This has not been an easy message to write, and I know how deeply you have been affected by this emotionally, physically and mentally.
What I do know is that if there is one team capable of rising to yet a further wave, and a team capable of pulling together to do the greatest amount of good, it is you.
With kindest regards,
Dave